India-Pakistan Crisis

On April 22, 2025, 26 civilians died in a Kashmir terrorist attack. India launched Operation Sindoor targeting militant infrastructure in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir. Pakistan claimed civilian areas were hit. On May 10, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos targeting Indian bases. The conflict included the first drone battle between two nuclear powers. Ceasefire agreed May 10.

This was the most dangerous nuclear escalation since 1999 Kargil. Both nations possess approximately 170 warheads each. Escalation from terrorist attack to cross-border strikes in fifteen days showed how thin the margin between conventional retaliation and nuclear threshold is.

India views cross-border terrorism as existential provocation; Pakistan views strikes as sovereignty violations. Without structural mechanisms to manage this cycle, the next crisis is when, not whether. Can deterrence survive without strategic restraint?