Nagorno-Karabakh War
2020 Sep 27 – 2020 Nov 10Drone Warfare Rewrites the Rules of Conflict
On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a 44-day offensive against Armenian-held Nagorno-Karabakh, ending with a Russian-brokered ceasefire. Azerbaijan recovered surrounding territories.
The war demonstrated that Turkish-supplied Bayraktar TB2 drones could destroy conventional military advantages. Low-cost unmanned systems neutralized armored columns and air defenses. Every military planner took note.
Turkey provided drones and advisors, projecting power into Russia's traditional sphere. Russia's muted response — it brokered peace but didn't prevent Armenian losses — revealed the limits of security guarantees. For small states relying on great-power protection, the lesson was clear: guarantees depend on the guarantor's willingness to enforce them. Are great-power security commitments credible when patrons face competing demands?